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Tropical Storm TOMAS


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TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010
1100 AM AST MON NOV 01 2010
 
TOMAS IS A HIGHLY SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
DISPLACED MORE THAN 100 MILES TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...A SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS RECENTLY
FORMED JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO FALL...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED
TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF DUE WEST...AND THE LATEST
12-HOUR INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 255/12. A GENERAL WESTWARD
HEADING WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW. BY WEDNESDAY...A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THIS LOW OR TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. AS THIS
OCCURS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL
WEAKEN THE STEERING CURRENTS AND THEN CAUSE TOMAS TO TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IN 4 TO 5 DAYS. THE LATEST TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT...MAINLY DUE TO THE
RECENT SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION.  ALTHOUGH THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS...IT ENDS UP ON THE
PREVIOUS TRACK BY DAYS 4 AND 5.
 
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF ABOUT 20 KT AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR COULD CAUSE
A LITTLE MORE WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  AFTER THAT
TIME...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND THE OTHER ATMOSPHERIC
AND OCEANIC PARAMETERS SHOULD SUPPORT STRENGTHENING.  ALL OF
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS TOMAS RE-INTENSIFYING...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 48
HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT THEME. THE NEW WIND
SPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE
INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/1500Z 13.6N  68.7W    40 KT
 12HR VT     02/0000Z 13.7N  70.3W    35 KT
 24HR VT     02/1200Z 13.8N  72.1W    35 KT
 36HR VT     03/0000Z 14.0N  73.3W    40 KT
 48HR VT     03/1200Z 14.3N  74.2W    45 KT
 72HR VT     04/1200Z 15.2N  74.8W    55 KT
 96HR VT     05/1200Z 17.5N  74.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     06/1200Z 21.5N  71.5W    65 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
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