Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm TOMAS


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010
1100 AM AST MON NOV 01 2010
 
TOMAS IS A HIGHLY SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
DISPLACED MORE THAN 100 MILES TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...A SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS RECENTLY
FORMED JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO FALL...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED
TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF DUE WEST...AND THE LATEST
12-HOUR INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 255/12. A GENERAL WESTWARD
HEADING WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW. BY WEDNESDAY...A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THIS LOW OR TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. AS THIS
OCCURS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL
WEAKEN THE STEERING CURRENTS AND THEN CAUSE TOMAS TO TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IN 4 TO 5 DAYS. THE LATEST TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT...MAINLY DUE TO THE
RECENT SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION.  ALTHOUGH THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS...IT ENDS UP ON THE
PREVIOUS TRACK BY DAYS 4 AND 5.
 
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF ABOUT 20 KT AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR COULD CAUSE
A LITTLE MORE WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  AFTER THAT
TIME...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND THE OTHER ATMOSPHERIC
AND OCEANIC PARAMETERS SHOULD SUPPORT STRENGTHENING.  ALL OF
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS TOMAS RE-INTENSIFYING...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 48
HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT THEME. THE NEW WIND
SPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE
INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/1500Z 13.6N  68.7W    40 KT
 12HR VT     02/0000Z 13.7N  70.3W    35 KT
 24HR VT     02/1200Z 13.8N  72.1W    35 KT
 36HR VT     03/0000Z 14.0N  73.3W    40 KT
 48HR VT     03/1200Z 14.3N  74.2W    45 KT
 72HR VT     04/1200Z 15.2N  74.8W    55 KT
 96HR VT     05/1200Z 17.5N  74.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     06/1200Z 21.5N  71.5W    65 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:25 UTC