Tropical Depression RICHARD
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
1000 PM CDT MON OCT 25 2010
RICHARD BARELY REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ONLY A SMALL AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVER LAND OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. IF NEW CONVECTION DOES NOT DEVELOP
NEAR THE CENTER SOON...RICHARD WILL DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/6...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SHOWS RICHARD TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY TUESDAY. A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR...IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR RICHARD TO REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/0300Z 18.4N 91.6W 25 KT
12HR VT 26/1200Z 19.1N 92.6W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24HR VT 27/0000Z 20.3N 93.7W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 27/1200Z 21.5N 94.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED
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FORECASTER BROWN
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