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Tropical Depression NINETEEN


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010
500 AM EDT THU OCT 21 2010
 
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION. ALTHOUGH
THE SHEAR SEEMS TO BE RELAXING AS INDICATED BY MOTION OF THE HIGH
CLOUDS...THE CENTER IS STILL LOCATED ON THE WESTERN PORTION OF A
CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...INDICATING
THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD BE A TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...AN AIR
FORCE PLANE WILL BE IN THE AREA IN A FEW HOURS...AND I WOULD RATHER
WAIT FOR THE RECONNAISSANCE DATA TO UPGRADE THE SYSTEM TO A
TROPICAL STORM. HAVING SAID THAT...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR OR OVER
THE DEPRESSION IN A DAY OR SO...AND A TRACK A LITTLE BIT MORE
DISTANT FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THESE CONDITIONS
AND THE PREVAILING WARM OCEAN WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A LITTLE MORE
STRENGTHENING THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL AND THE HWRF. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AS INDICATED BY
THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 135
DEGREES AT 3 KNOTS...EMBEDDED IN VERY LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS.
LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THEREAFTER...ALL GLOBAL MODELS LIFT OUT THE CURRENT TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND REPLACE IT WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS NEW
STEERING PATTERN WOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO
THE NORTH...AND IS HEAVILY BASED ON THE GFS...THE UK MODELS AND
CONTINUITY. I HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND 72 HOURS
BECAUSE THE GFDL...THE HWRF AND THE ECMWF TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARD
THE NORTH OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE TRACK HAS TO BE ADJUSTED
NORTHWARD LATER ON.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/0900Z 17.0N  80.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     21/1800Z 16.8N  80.7W    40 KT
 24HR VT     22/0600Z 16.5N  81.0W    45 KT
 36HR VT     22/1800Z 16.5N  81.5W    55 KT
 48HR VT     23/0600Z 16.5N  82.0W    65 KT
 72HR VT     24/0600Z 17.5N  84.5W    65 KT
 96HR VT     25/0600Z 19.0N  88.0W    40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     26/0600Z 21.0N  90.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:22 UTC