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Tropical Storm PAULA


ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
800 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010
 
...PAULA MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COAST OF CUBA...WIND GUST
TO 54 MPH REPORTED IN HAVANA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 82.0W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM E OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM W OF VERADERO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...55 MPH...90 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE DRY TORTUGAS
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA AND CIUDAD
DE LA HABANA
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR...AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM CUBA INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA
WAS CENTERED ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA NEAR LATITUDE 23.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.0 WEST. PAULA PASSED OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF
HAVANA CUBA THIS EVENING AROUND 6 PM EDT...2200 UTC. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...PAULA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 55 MPH...90 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND PAULA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ON FRIDAY.
 
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST FROM THE CENTER. A SUSTAINED WIND OF
41 MPH...67 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 54 MPH...87 KM/HR...WAS REPORTED
IN HAVANA DURING THE PAST HOUR.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT...PRIMARILY ALONG THE NORTH
COAST.
 
RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH PAULA. THESE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE FLORIDA KEYS.
 
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW ALONG
THE NORTH COAST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BLAKE
 
NNNN


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