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Hurricane PAULA


ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
700 AM CDT WED OCT 13 2010
 
...SMALL BUT STRONG HURRICANE PAULA MOVING OVER THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL... 
 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 85.9W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM E OF CANCUN MEXICO
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL
* THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE

THE WARNINGS FOR YUCATAN MEXICO WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER
THIS MORNING. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING.  A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY
THIS AFTERNOON.  ON THIS TRACK...THE SMALL CORE OF HURRICANE PAULA
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TODAY...AND BE NEAR
OR OVER WESTERN CUBA BY TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  PAULA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.
 
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60
MILES...95 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS COULD AFFECT THE MEXICAN COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TODAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME WESTERN CUBA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS FORECAST BY TONIGHT.
 
RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE...OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
 
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA.  THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. A STORM SURGE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BUT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS
MORNING.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN


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