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Hurricane PAULA


ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
700 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010
 
...SMALL HURRICANE PAULA HEADING TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND
EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 86.0W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL
* THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST.  PAULA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR.  THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH
A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF PAULA SHOULD REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
ON WEDNESDAY AND BE NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY THURSDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  PAULA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN
THEREAFTER.
 
PAULA IS A SMALL HURRICANE.  HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN MEXICO BY TONIGHT...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.  TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME WESTERN CUBA LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
 
RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
 
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OVER
EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI
 
NNNN


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