Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane PAULA


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
400 AM CDT WED OCT 13 2010
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING
PAULA THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT THE HURRICANE HAS CHANGED LITTLE
SINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OBSERVED IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT WERE 96 KT...WHICH EQUATES TO
ABOUT AN 86-KT SURFACE WIND. THE HIGHEST SFMR SURFACE WINDS
OBSERVED WERE 81-82 KT. BASED ON THE RECON INFORMATION...ALONG WITH
THE FACT THAT CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER OF PAULA HAVE BEEN COOLING
DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 85
KT. ALTHOUGH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN BY 3 MB SINCE
YESTERDAY...THE CYCLONE IS NOW ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN A FIELD OF
HIGHER ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURES...WHICH HAS KEPT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT NEARLY CONSTANT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/8. FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...
PAULA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN THE NORTHEAST
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. BY 36 HOURS...PAULA IS FORECAST TO TURN
EASTWARD AS THE HURRICANE COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WESTERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO...BUT DIFFER IN THE EXACT TIMING
OF THE EASTWARD TURN. THE OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE HAS SHIFTED
NORTHWARD...DUE IN LARGE PART TO NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE HWRF MODEL.
BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS BRING PAULA JUST SOUTH OF THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS...WHEREAS THE GFS-ENSEMBLE MEAN AND BAM
DEEP MODELS BRING PAULA ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THE LATTER
MODEL SCENARIOS SEEM UNREASONABLE AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE MODERATE
WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ALTHOUGH
THE CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN...HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THAT MODEL AND NEAR THE NORTHERN
COAST OF CUBA THROUGH 48 HOURS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERLY
FLOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF 23N LATITUDE AND THE
POSSIBILITY THAT PAULA MAY WEAKEN SOONER THAN EXPECTED AND BE
PUSHED SOUTHWARD BY A STRONG SURFACE HIGH THAT WILL BE
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.

PAULA HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY NOW THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS
INCREASED TO NEAR 25 KT AND RECON INDICATED THE EYEWALL WAS OPEN TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY AND THEN WESTERLY
SHEAR EXCEEDING 30 KT SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON PAULA DUE TO
VERY SMALL SIZE OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  IF PAULA
INTERACTS WITH LAND SOONER THAN EXPECTED...THEN MORE RAPID
WEAKENING WOULD OCCUR...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EXTREMELY SMALL SIZE
OF THE WIND FIELD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM AND
SHIPS INTENSITY MODELS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/0900Z 20.7N  86.0W    85 KT
 12HR VT     13/1800Z 21.5N  85.8W    80 KT
 24HR VT     14/0600Z 22.3N  85.0W    70 KT
 36HR VT     14/1800Z 23.0N  83.6W    60 KT
 48HR VT     15/0600Z 23.2N  82.5W    50 KT
 72HR VT     16/0600Z 22.9N  80.5W    35 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     17/0600Z 22.0N  79.5W    30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     18/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:21 UTC