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Hurricane PAULA


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
400 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010
 
AN AIR FORCE PLANE HAS BEEN MONITORING PAULA AND RECENTLY MEASURED
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 94 KNOTS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. EARLIER
SFMR WINDS RANGED BETWEEN 85 TO 90 KNOTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF AN EYE
OF 10 N MI IN DIAMETER. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN STEADY NEAR
981 MB FOR THE PAST TWO FIXES...PERHAPS INDICATING THAT THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION HAS ENDED. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS
OUTSTANDING WITH A SMALL EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST BUT LIMITED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. IN FACT...T-NUMBERS ARE
5.0...OR 90 KNOTS...ON THE DVORAK SCALE.  BASED ON A BLEND OF
THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 85 KNOTS. PAULA HAS A SMALL
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS OR SO BEFORE IT MOVES INTO AN AREA OF HIGH SHEAR IN THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN CUBA. THE
SHEAR AND THE TERRAIN WOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING AS INDICATED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST AND SUGGESTED BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.
 
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT
8 KNOTS AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH. IN ABOUT
12 TO 24 HOURS...PAULA WILL ENCOUNTER THE WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BASE OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST OVER WESTERN CUBA.  NOW THAT PAULA IS 
STRONGER...IT SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE DEEP LAYER FLOW...AND THAT IS
PERHAPS THE REASON WHY MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A LITTLE
MORE AGGRESSIVE EASTWARD TRACK IN THE LATEST RUNS. IN PREVIOUS
RUNS..MODELS KEPT A SHALLOW CYCLONE MEANDERING OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  NEVERTHELESS...THE TRACK FORECAST IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BEYOND 48 HOURS GIVEN THE EXPECTED COMPLEX FLOW
PATTERN...THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...AND THE EFFECT OF LAND.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/2100Z 19.2N  86.0W    85 KT
 12HR VT     13/0600Z 20.3N  86.2W    95 KT
 24HR VT     13/1800Z 21.5N  86.0W    85 KT
 36HR VT     14/0600Z 22.0N  85.0W    75 KT
 48HR VT     14/1800Z 22.5N  83.5W    65 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     15/1800Z 22.5N  80.5W    45 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     16/1800Z 22.5N  79.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     17/1800Z 22.5N  78.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:21 UTC