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Tropical Storm MATTHEW


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152010
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2010
 
THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF MATTHEW HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THIS EVENING.  A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY
DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER AND SEVERAL BROKEN BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
ARE SEEN AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION.  THE LATEST
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 AND 35
KT...RESPECTIVELY.  BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SET AT 40 KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/15.  FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...
MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
DIRECTION TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
ATLANTIC WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THAT TIME AND THERE IS FAIRLY
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT PART OF THE FORECAST.  IN 2-3 DAYS...
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS A STRONG
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A WEAKENING OF THE STEERING CURRENTS AND A
DECELERATION OF THE CYCLONE.  THEREAFTER...THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH SEVERAL OF THEM SHOWING RATHER
COMPLEX SCENARIOS.  THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF ALL MOVE MATTHEW
WELL INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN
2-3 DAYS.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE GFS AND ECMWF ACTUALLY WEAKEN
MATTHEW...THEN DEVELOP A SECOND CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN SEA.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE NOGAPS...GFDL....AND HWRF
KEEP MATTHEW AS THE PRIMARY SYSTEM AND SHOW IT TURNING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT DAYS 4 AND 5. 
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE IS A MUCH HIGHER DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE 4 AND 5 DAY FORECASTS THAN NORMAL.  FOR NOW THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED CLOSER TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS...TVCN...AND IS WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BEYOND 72
HOURS.
 
MATTHEW WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY
SHEAR OVER WARM WATER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THEREFORE...
STEADY STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE DURING THAT TIME.  AFTER 24
HOURS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON LAND
INTERACTION.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY THROUGH 48 HOURS...ASSUMING THE CENTER STAYS OFFSHORE OF
HONDURAS.  THEREAFTER...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD SINCE THE NEW TRACK FORECAST SHOWS MATTHEW OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 72-120 HOURS.
 
BASED ON THE NEW TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST...SOME CHANGES WERE
REQUIRED TO THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0300Z 14.0N  78.4W    40 KT
 12HR VT     24/1200Z 14.5N  80.5W    50 KT
 24HR VT     25/0000Z 15.1N  82.9W    65 KT
 36HR VT     25/1200Z 15.9N  85.1W    60 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     26/0000Z 16.6N  87.1W    65 KT...OVER WATER
 72HR VT     27/0000Z 17.9N  89.2W    50 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     28/0000Z 18.5N  89.5W    40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     29/0000Z 19.0N  89.5W    35 KT...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:20 UTC