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Tropical Storm KARL


ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM KARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5             
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010               
2100 UTC WED SEP 15 2010                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       3       5       3       4      10      39      NA
TROP DEPRESSION 65      42      11       7       5      27      NA
TROPICAL STORM  31      51      72      48      46      24      NA
HURRICANE        X       2      15      41      39      10      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        X       2      12      31      29       7      NA
HUR CAT 2        X       X       2       7       7       3      NA
HUR CAT 3        X       X       X       3       3       X      NA
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X      NA
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   30KT    35KT    50KT    65KT    70KT    25KT    NA  
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CORPUS CHRISTI 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BROWNSVILLE TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   2(11)   X(11)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   9(14)   2(16)   X(16)
GFMX 250N 960W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
LA PESCA MX    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  22(28)   4(32)   X(32)
LA PESCA MX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   3(11)   X(11)
LA PESCA MX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
TAMPICO MX     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)  31(45)   5(50)   X(50)
TAMPICO MX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  16(19)   3(22)   X(22)
TAMPICO MX     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
TUXPAN MX      34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  16(19)  29(48)   2(50)   X(50)
TUXPAN MX      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  14(17)   2(19)   X(19)
TUXPAN MX      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
VERACRUZ MX    34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)  10(21)   1(22)   X(22)
VERACRUZ MX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
VERACRUZ MX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
FRONTERA MX    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:18 UTC