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Tropical Storm JULIA


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010
1100 AM AST MON SEP 20 2010
 
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER BY
THE OUTFLOW OF HURRICANE IGOR...WITH THE COLDEST TOPS NOW A COUPLE
OF HUNDRED MILES AWAY FROM THE CENTER.  THE ASCAT PASS FROM 0046Z
LAST NIGHT SHOWED THAT THE CIRCULATION WAS BECOMING ELONGATED EVEN
THEN...AND VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT JULIA IS LOSING
SOME DEFINITION AS IT BECOMES ENTANGLED WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH TO
THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE.  BASED ON THESE STRUCTURAL CHANGES...THIS
WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY.
 
MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT JULIA IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS MOVING AT 090/8.  THE 00Z ECMWF HANDLED
THE OVERNIGHT MOTION OF JULIA BEST...WITH THE OTHER GUIDANCE WELL
TO THE LEFT AND SHOWING MORE OF AN INTERACTION WITH THE CIRCULATION
OF IGOR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE ECMWF GUIDANCE WITH A
FORECAST MOTION SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE SHEAR OVER
JULIA ELEVATED...AND GIVEN THE MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...
PREVENT THE SYSTEM FROM REDEVELOPING ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION.  IF
PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE...THE CIRCULATION OF JULIA WILL BECOME
ILL-DEFINED WITHIN A FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THAT
SCENARIO IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALTHOUGH IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT JULIA COULD REMAIN WELL-ENOUGH DEFINED TO LINGER AND
MOVE EASTWARD AS A REMNANT LOW FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AS SHOWN BY THE
ECMWF.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/1500Z 34.7N  46.4W    40 KT...POST-TROPICAL
 12HR VT     21/0000Z 34.9N  45.3W    35 KT...POST-TROPICAL
 24HR VT     21/1200Z 35.5N  43.0W    30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36HR VT     22/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:16 UTC