Hurricane JULIA

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HURRICANE JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010
500 AM AST TUE SEP 14 2010
 
JULIA HAS STRENGTHENED THIS MORNING.  A RAGGED EYE FEATURE HAS
OCCASIONALLY BEEN EVIDENT IN GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 65 KT...AND THE CIMSS ADT
ESTIMATES ARE ALSO NEAR THAT VALUE.  ON THIS BASIS...JULIA IS
UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WITH THE INITIAL WIND SPEED SET AT 65 KT.

SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO AS UNANIMOUSLY SHOWN BY THE MODEL GUIDANCE.  HOWEVER...SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL BELOW 27 C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK IN 24
TO 48 HOURS...AND THAT SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION DURING THAT
TIME PERIOD.  ALTHOUGH JULIA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER WARMER
WATERS BEYOND A FEW DAYS...STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF HURRICANE IGOR...SHOULD INDUCE
WEAKENING BY THAT TIME.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD
DURING THE FIRST FEW DAYS AND THEN FALLS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/10.  A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE JULIA TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE IN THAT DIRECTION FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN NORTH OF
JULIA.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN BACK TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.  BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...JULIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST IN THE 3 TO 5
DAY RANGE...TRENDING TOWARD THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/0900Z 16.1N  29.0W    65 KT
 12HR VT     14/1800Z 16.8N  30.1W    70 KT
 24HR VT     15/0600Z 18.1N  31.7W    80 KT
 36HR VT     15/1800Z 19.7N  33.6W    80 KT
 48HR VT     16/0600Z 21.5N  36.1W    75 KT
 72HR VT     17/0600Z 24.5N  42.5W    70 KT
 96HR VT     18/0600Z 27.5N  48.5W    60 KT
120HR VT     19/0600Z 32.0N  51.0W    50 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
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