Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane IGOR


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  49
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010
500 AM AST MON SEP 20 2010
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN SPUTTERING NEAR THE CENTER OF IGOR OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS...HOWEVER SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS AND EARLIER
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM BERMUDA SUPPORT KEEPING IGOR AT HURRICANE
INTENSITY.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE IGOR
UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...WHICH SHOULD BE COMPLETE BY 36
HOURS WHEN GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SHOW THE CYCLONE BECOMING FULLY
EMBEDDED WITHIN A BAROCLINIC ZONE.  POST-TROPICAL IGOR IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE FOR A DAY OR TWO BEFORE
WEAKENING LATE IN THE PERIOD.
 
THE LATEST SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE FORWARD MOTION OF IGOR
HAS INCREASED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 025/17. IGOR
WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS IT RECURVES
AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  BY DAYS 3 AND 4 IGOR WILL TURN NORTHWARD
AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
MOVING EASTWARD FROM NORTHERN QUEBEC INTO THE DAVIS STRAIT. THE
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IN THE FIRST
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN
THAT DIRECTION AND LIES ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
SUITE...BUT TO THE RIGHT OF THE GFS. FROM 48 HOURS ONWARD...THE NEW
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST AND THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN. HOWEVER...MODEL SPREAD IS QUITE LARGE AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW IGOR INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER
LOW...AND CONFIDENCE IN TRACK FORECAST NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD
IS LOW.
 
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE STILL BEING FELT ON BERMUDA...BUT
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY.  STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND AS IGOR PASSES BY...AND THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A
PORTION OF THAT PROVINCE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/0900Z 34.2N  64.4W    65 KT
 12HR VT     20/1800Z 36.7N  62.4W    65 KT
 24HR VT     21/0600Z 40.6N  57.6W    65 KT
 36HR VT     21/1800Z 45.6N  50.8W    70 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48HR VT     22/0600Z 47.7N  44.5W    65 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72HR VT     23/0600Z 55.0N  37.0W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96HR VT     24/0600Z 61.0N  41.0W    35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT     25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:14 UTC