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Hurricane IGOR


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010
1100 PM AST THU SEP 16 2010
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN OF IGOR HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS EVENING.  DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 5.5 AND 6.0...
RESPECTIVELY.  THIS SUPPORTS MAINTAINING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
110 KT.  THE EYE OF IGOR IS PASSING VERY NEAR NOAA BUOY 41044.
THROUGH 0200 UTC...THE 5-METER HIGH ANEMOMETER ON THE BUOY HAS
REPORTED PEAK 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 69 KT WITH A GUST TO 91
KT.  A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 940.3 MB WAS RECORDED AT 0050 UTC WITH
WINDS AROUND 60 KT.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS
AROUND 935 MB.  DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE AND RELATIVELY SLOW MOTION OF
THE HURRICANE...THE BUOY HAS NOW REPORTED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS FOR 21 CONSECUTIVE HOURS.
 
IGOR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER AND IN A FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH SHEAR LESS THAN 15 KT DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.  SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME...AND THE SHORT-TERM INTENSITY WILL LIKELY BE DICTATED BY
EYEWALL CYCLES THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT.  AFTER 48 HOURS...
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AND IGOR
WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER SSTS IN 4-5 DAYS.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
GRADUAL WEAKENING...HOWEVER IGOR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE AND
POWERFUL HURRICANE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS. BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD IGOR WILL BE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
 
IGOR HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT.  THE
HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...IGOR
WILL ACCELERATE AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES IN A FEW DAYS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE AND
NEITHER HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/0300Z 22.0N  58.7W   110 KT
 12HR VT     17/1200Z 23.0N  60.0W   115 KT
 24HR VT     18/0000Z 24.2N  61.7W   115 KT
 36HR VT     18/1200Z 25.7N  63.3W   115 KT
 48HR VT     19/0000Z 27.3N  64.4W   110 KT
 72HR VT     20/0000Z 31.7N  65.1W   100 KT
 96HR VT     21/0000Z 37.5N  60.0W    85 KT
120HR VT     22/0000Z 45.5N  47.0W    70 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:14 UTC