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Hurricane IGOR


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010
500 PM AST THU SEP 16 2010
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REACHED THE CENTER OF
IGOR AROUND 1600 UTC. THE HURRICANE HUNTERS MEASURED A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 940 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS OF 130
AND 98 KT...RESPECTIVELY. SINCE THAT TIME..THE CLOUD PATTERN
ASSOCIATED WITH IGOR HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION...AND
DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT 5.5 FROM SAB AND TAFB. BASED UPON THE
AIRCRAFT DATA AND THE LOWER SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 110 KT. THE EXTENSION OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF IGOR IS STILL PRODUCING ABOUT
15 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
UW-CIMSS ANALYSES. THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS A REDUCTION IN THE
SHEAR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES AWAY...WHICH
COULD ALLOW AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IN THE
SHORT-TERM. THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT IGOR WILL BE MOVING INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT OF GRADUALLY INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...AND OVER COOLER WATERS BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO
FACTORS SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW WEAKENING BEYOND 48 HOURS...AND THE
NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS. BY DAY 5...GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT IGOR WILL BE AT LEAST BEGINNING TO UNDERGO
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
 
IGOR CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ABOUT THE SAME MOTION...310/7. THE
REASONING FOR THE TRACK FORECAST IS UNCHANGED. THE HURRICANE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH
SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AROUND THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. BEYOND 72 HOURS...
IGOR SHOULD BEGIN ACCELERATING WHILE TURNING NORTH AND THEN
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT THIS CYCLE APPARENTLY
DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFORMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED
WESTWARD...FOLLOWING THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...AND LIES IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/2100Z 21.7N  58.1W   110 KT
 12HR VT     17/0600Z 22.4N  59.2W   110 KT
 24HR VT     17/1800Z 23.5N  61.0W   115 KT
 36HR VT     18/0600Z 24.9N  62.7W   115 KT
 48HR VT     18/1800Z 26.5N  64.0W   110 KT
 72HR VT     19/1800Z 30.5N  65.5W   100 KT
 96HR VT     20/1800Z 35.5N  62.5W    90 KT
120HR VT     21/1800Z 42.0N  53.0W    70 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:14 UTC