Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm IGOR


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010
500 PM AST SAT SEP 11 2010
 
IGOR IS VERY CLOSE TO BECOMING A HURRICANE.  SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW
THAT CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AROUND THE CENTER AND HAVE RECENTLY
SUGGESTED THAT AN EYEWALL COULD BE FORMING.  ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
INTENSITY ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES SUGGEST IGOR IS A HURRICANE...IT IS
PREFERABLE TO WAIT AND SEE IF THE CONVECTION STICKS AROUND AND TO
GET MICROWAVE CONFIRMATION OF THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE.    

MOST OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS NEAR THE CYCLONE SEEM RATHER
CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING.  GLOBAL MODELS ALL BUILD AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE JUST TO THE NORTH OF IGOR...A RATHER FAVORABLE PATTERN
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MAJOR HURRICANE.  SSTS AND OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT ALSO INCREASE STEADILY ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.  THE MOST
OBVIOUS INHIBITING FACTOR IS PERHAPS A WEDGE OF DRIER AIR THAT HAS
WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION. 
HOWEVER...THAT DRY AIR PROBABLY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO
THE INNER CORE WITHOUT SOME SHEAR...AND THAT DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.  THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE...BUT PEAKS BELOW THE LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS.  IT IS OF
NOTE THAT ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE
AND POWERFUL HURRICANE...AND THE FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
INCREASED.

IGOR REMAINS ON TRACK AND IS MOVING 275/16.  THE SYNOPTIC STEERING
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS APPEARS WELL DEFINED WITH A RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDING THE CYCLONE GENERALLY
WESTWARD.  HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE IS CRITICAL TO WHEN
IGOR BEGINS A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION.  THE MODELS THAT MOVE THE
STORM FASTER TO THE WEST INITIALLY...SUCH AS THE NOGAPS OR
UKMET...ALLOW IGOR TO GET A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS BEFORE MAKING A WEST-NORTHWEST TURN IN TWO OR THREE DAYS.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER GROUP OF MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS/GFDL
SOLUTIONS...SHOW THAT TURN OCCURRING IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.   THE
MODEL SPREAD HAS INCREASED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...AND I HAVE
ELECTED NOT TO CHANGE THE FORECAST MUCH...WHICH REMAINS TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/2100Z 17.4N  41.2W    60 KT
 12HR VT     12/0600Z 17.5N  43.6W    70 KT
 24HR VT     12/1800Z 17.6N  46.4W    80 KT
 36HR VT     13/0600Z 17.7N  48.8W    90 KT
 48HR VT     13/1800Z 17.9N  51.0W   100 KT
 72HR VT     14/1800Z 18.8N  54.8W   115 KT
 96HR VT     15/1800Z 20.3N  57.7W   115 KT
120HR VT     16/1800Z 22.0N  60.5W   115 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:14 UTC