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Tropical Storm GASTON


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092010
500 PM AST WED SEP 01 2010
 
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH AN INTENSE CONVECTIVE BAND IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45
KT AND 30 KT...RESPECTIVELY...WITH AMSU ESTIMATES FROM CIRA AND CSU
INDICATING 50 KT AND 37 KT. OVERALL THIS SYSTEM APPEARS BETTER
ORGANIZED THAN SIX HOURS AGO...AND A BLEND OF THESE DATA GIVES AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT...MAKING GASTON THE SEVENTH NAMED STORM
OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.

THERE IS STILL A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO THE WEST AND NORTH
OF THE TROPICAL STORM...WHICH MAY HINDER STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...
ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT A RELATIVELY LIGHT SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE PRESENT NEAR GASTON FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 
THE GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES CONSIDERABLY MORE INTENSIFICATION OF
GASTON...WITH THE NORMALLY CONSERVATIVE LGEM SHOWING THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE NHC
FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT REMAINS LOWER THAN
THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  

AN AMSR-E PASS AT 1613 UTC HELPED WITH THE INITIAL POSITION AND
MOTION...WHICH IS A BIT SLOWER THAN BEFORE AT 280/13. A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF GASTON IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOON AS A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSES BY...WHICH WOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO SLOW
DOWN. THIS RIDGE SHOULD REBUILD IN A FEW DAYS AND STEER THE
TROPICAL STORM AT AN INCREASINGLY FASTER RATE TO THE WEST OR WEST-
NORTHWEST. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT
NOW THAT MOST OF THEM ARE INITIALIZING THE STORM...BUT THERE ARE
STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT SPEED DIFFERENCES. THE NHC FORECAST IS
FASTER THAN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM AS IT SEEMS LIKE
THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY SHOWING TOO MUCH INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
ITCZ AND GASTON. THE NEW FORECAST DOES END UP CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE BY DAY 5...AND IS NEAR A BLEND OF THE GFS/UKMET/HWRF/GFDL
MODELS. 
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/2100Z 12.9N  37.0W    35 KT
 12HR VT     02/0600Z 13.1N  38.3W    40 KT
 24HR VT     02/1800Z 13.4N  39.9W    40 KT
 36HR VT     03/0600Z 13.7N  41.2W    45 KT
 48HR VT     03/1800Z 14.0N  42.5W    50 KT
 72HR VT     04/1800Z 15.0N  45.5W    55 KT
 96HR VT     05/1800Z 15.5N  50.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     06/1800Z 16.5N  54.5W    75 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:11 UTC