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Hurricane EARL


ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE EARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  27                  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010               
0300 UTC WED SEP 01 2010                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115   
KTS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       X       X       1       8      29
TROP DEPRESSION  X       X       X       X       3      12      29
TROPICAL STORM   X       X       1       3      28      47      37
HURRICANE       99      99      99      97      68      33       5
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        X       3       6      15      37      24       4
HUR CAT 2        3      12      15      27      17       7       1
HUR CAT 3       60      55      49      36      10       2       X
HUR CAT 4       36      27      26      16       3       1       X
HUR CAT 5        2       3       4       3       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND  115KT   115KT   115KT   110KT    90KT    75KT    50KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)  12(30)
ILE ST PIERRE  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
ILE ST PIERRE  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  22(22)  20(42)
BURGEO NFLD    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   8(13)
BURGEO NFLD    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  30(30)  18(48)
PTX BASQUES    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  11(20)
PTX BASQUES    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  49(49)   5(54)
EDDY POINT NS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  19(19)   4(23)
EDDY POINT NS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   1( 8)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  43(43)   8(51)
SYDNEY NS      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)   5(20)
SYDNEY NS      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  39(39)   2(41)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   1(14)
SABLE ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  56(56)   2(58)
HALIFAX NS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  26(26)   1(27)
HALIFAX NS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   X(11)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  52(54)   1(55)
YARMOUTH NS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  27(27)   X(27)
YARMOUTH NS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   X(12)
 
MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  40(40)   2(42)
MONCTON NB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)   2(19)
MONCTON NB     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  39(39)   X(39)
ST JOHN NB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)   1(18)
ST JOHN NB     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   1( 8)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  34(35)   X(35)
EASTPORT ME    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)   X(15)
EASTPORT ME    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  27(29)   X(29)
BAR HARBOR ME  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   X(11)
BAR HARBOR ME  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
 
AUGUSTA ME     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  19(21)   X(21)
AUGUSTA ME     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)
AUGUSTA ME     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
PORTLAND ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  16(21)   X(21)
PORTLAND ME    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)
PORTLAND ME    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
CONCORD NH     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  10(16)   X(16)
CONCORD NH     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
BOSTON MA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)  14(27)   X(27)
BOSTON MA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   X( 9)
BOSTON MA      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  24(24)  20(44)   X(44)
HYANNIS MA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  14(19)   X(19)
HYANNIS MA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   X( 9)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  31(31)  21(52)   X(52)
NANTUCKET MA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  17(25)   X(25)
NANTUCKET MA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   X(12)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  20(20)  11(31)   X(31)
PROVIDENCE RI  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)   X(12)
PROVIDENCE RI  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)
 
HARTFORD CT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)   6(20)   X(20)
HARTFORD CT    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
HARTFORD CT    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  26(26)   8(34)   X(34)
MONTAUK POINT  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   6(13)   X(13)
MONTAUK POINT  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 
NEW YORK CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)   3(20)   X(20)
NEW YORK CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
NEW YORK CITY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)   1(16)   X(16)
NEWARK NJ      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)   1(15)   X(15)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  22(22)   X(22)   X(22)
ATLANTIC CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
ATLANTIC CITY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)   1(17)   X(17)
DOVER DE       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  28(29)   X(29)   X(29)
OCEAN CITY MD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
OCEAN CITY MD  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  20(28)   X(28)   X(28)
NORFOLK NAS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
NORFOLK NAS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  22(30)   X(30)   X(30)
NORFOLK VA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
NORFOLK VA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  35(36)  27(63)   X(63)   X(63)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  24(31)   X(31)   X(31)
CAPE HATTERAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  35(37)  14(51)   X(51)   X(51)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  10(17)   X(17)   X(17)
MOREHEAD CITY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  24(26)   6(32)   X(32)   X(32)
WILMINGTON NC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
WILMINGTON NC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)   3(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
ANDROS         34  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  3   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  7   6(13)   2(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
SAN SALVADOR   50  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  6   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
GRAND TURK     34  6   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:10 UTC