Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane DANIELLE


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
500 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010
 
DANIELLE HAS WEAKENED THIS MORNING. AN EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT IN
GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS ERODED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...
DUE TO ABOUT 25-30 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR. DVORAK CI NUMBERS
ARE 77 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND ON THIS BASIS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 80 KT. A CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND
IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO AN
EVEN STRONGER WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DANIELLE
TRANSITIONING TO AN STRONG EXTRATROPICAL STORM WITHIN 2 DAYS...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.
 
DANIELLE CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD...AHEAD OF A MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG 63 W...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/18. THE HURRICANE MAY BRIEFLY SLOW DOWN
DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS SOME MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS TO THE
NORTH OF DANIELLE. THEREAFTER...A LARGER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND THAT SHOULD CAUSE DANIELLE
TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST ONCE AGAIN. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.
 
THE 34-KT AND 50-KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE BASED ON AN 0142 UTC ASCAT PASS. THE 12-FT SEA RADII HAVE
ALSO BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/0900Z 33.2N  57.3W    80 KT
 12HR VT     29/1800Z 35.9N  55.5W    75 KT
 24HR VT     30/0600Z 38.3N  53.6W    70 KT
 36HR VT     30/1800Z 39.8N  50.7W    65 KT
 48HR VT     31/0600Z 41.1N  46.0W    60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72HR VT     01/0600Z 46.0N  34.0W    60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96HR VT     02/0600Z 54.5N  31.0W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT     03/0600Z...ABSORBED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:07 UTC