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Tropical Depression FIVE


ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCC                                                 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE 
SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052010               
2330 UTC TUE AUG 10 2010   

CORRECTED HEADER                                         
                                                                    
AT 2330Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR    
LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       3       5       5      11      29      47      NA
TROP DEPRESSION 64      40      33      36      32      30      NA
TROPICAL STORM  34      54      57      47      34      21      NA
HURRICANE        X       2       5       6       5       2      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        X       2       5       6       4       2      NA
HUR CAT 2        X       X       1       1       X       X      NA
HUR CAT 3        X       X       X       X       X       X      NA
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X      NA
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   30KT    35KT    40KT    30KT    25KT    20KT    NA  
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  1   4( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  1   7( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   5( 5)   4( 9)   1(10)   1(11)   1(12)   X(12)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   4( 4)  10(14)   2(16)   2(18)   2(20)   X(20)
PENSACOLA FL   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  1  19(20)  16(36)   2(38)   X(38)   1(39)   X(39)
GFMX 290N 870W 50  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
GFMX 290N 870W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   3( 3)  12(15)   5(20)   2(22)   2(24)   X(24)
MOBILE AL      50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   2( 2)  16(18)   9(27)   4(31)   2(33)   X(33)
GULFPORT MS    50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
GULFPORT MS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
STENNIS SC     34  X   2( 2)  14(16)  13(29)   5(34)   2(36)   X(36)
STENNIS SC     50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
STENNIS SC     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   2( 2)  22(24)  12(36)   4(40)   3(43)   X(43)
BURAS LA       50  X   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)   2(11)   1(12)   X(12)
BURAS LA       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   5( 5)  16(21)   5(26)   3(29)   1(30)   X(30)
GFMX 280N 890W 50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
GFMX 280N 890W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
GFMX 287N 884W 34  X  11(11)  26(37)   5(42)   1(43)   1(44)   X(44)
GFMX 287N 884W 50  X   1( 1)   7( 8)   3(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)
GFMX 287N 884W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
JACKSON MS     34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   7(13)   6(19)   X(19)
JACKSON MS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   1( 1)  12(13)  14(27)   9(36)   2(38)   X(38)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   7(14)   6(20)   3(23)   X(23)
GFMX 280N 910W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)  11(18)  11(29)   3(32)   X(32)
BATON ROUGE LA 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
BATON ROUGE LA 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   8(13)  13(26)   4(30)   X(30)
NEW IBERIA LA  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
NEW IBERIA LA  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   6(10)   3(13)   X(13)
 
SHREVEPORT LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   5(12)   X(12)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   7(10)   4(14)   X(14)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
GALVESTON TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
HOUSTON TX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
 
FREEPORT TX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:05 UTC