Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm COLIN


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042010
500 PM AST FRI AUG 06 2010
 
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CHANGES WITH COLIN AND THE NEAR-STORM
ENVIRONMENT SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.  FIRST...THE WELL-DEFINED LOW
CLOUD SWIRL SEEN EARLIER HAS BECOME PART OF A LARGER ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH MULTIPLE SWIRLS ROTATING AROUND A MEAN CENTER.
SECOND...CIRRUS CLOUDS APPROACHING THE CENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ARE MOVING AT 40 KT...SUGGESTING THAT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS
INCREASED.  THIRD...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASED SHEAR...THE
CONVECTION HAS DECREASED NEAR THE CENTER.  DESPITE THESE NEGATIVE
FACTORS...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS FOUND
43-KT WINDS AT 500 FT SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER WITH ESTIMATED
SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SFMR OF 39 KT.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS A POSSIBLY GENEROUS 40 KT.
 
AFTER THE TRACK EXCURSION NOTED EARLIER...THE MEAN CENTER OF THE
CIRCULATION HAS RESUMED A NORTHWARD MOTION OF 010/8.  THERE IS
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  COLIN IS MOVING
NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW
NEAR 28N74W AS A DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  ALL TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE
CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HR...THEN TURN NORTHEASTWARD AT A FASTER FORWARD
SPEED AS IT REACHES THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES.  THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HR AS THE
40-KT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IMPACT THE SYSTEM.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
FORECAST THAT THE SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE AFTER THAT...WHICH IF
CORRECT WOULD ALLOW COLIN TO STRENGTH.  THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS
CONTINUE TO FORECAST COLIN TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 60-72 HR...
WHILE THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS FORECAST A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50-55
KT.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...CALLING FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KT IN 72 HR IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS.  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BE UNDERWAY BY 72 HR
AND BE COMPLETE BY 96 HR...WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECASTING
COLIN TO REMAIN A STRONG CYCLONE THROUGH THAT PROCESS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/2100Z 28.3N  66.8W    40 KT
 12HR VT     07/0600Z 29.5N  66.4W    40 KT
 24HR VT     07/1800Z 31.1N  65.7W    45 KT
 36HR VT     08/0600Z 32.8N  64.9W    50 KT
 48HR VT     08/1800Z 35.1N  64.0W    55 KT
 72HR VT     09/1800Z 41.0N  59.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     10/1800Z 47.5N  48.5W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT     11/1800Z 56.0N  40.0W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:04 UTC