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Tropical Storm ALEX


ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM ALEX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5             
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010               
2100 UTC SAT JUN 26 2010                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR.                                        
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       4       9      11      10      12      17      50
TROP DEPRESSION 65      32      17      11      10       5      24
TROPICAL STORM  30      48      63      54      42      44      18
HURRICANE        1      11      10      25      36      34       8
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        X      10       8      20      25      26       6
HUR CAT 2        1       1       1       4       8       7       2
HUR CAT 3        X       X       1       2       3       1       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       1       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   30KT    30KT    45KT    55KT    65KT    65KT    20KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
FREEPORT TX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   1( 9)
 
BROWNSVILLE TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  10(15)   3(18)
BROWNSVILLE TX 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)  12(25)   2(27)
GFMX 250N 960W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)
GFMX 250N 960W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
LA PESCO MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)  20(30)   6(36)
LA PESCO MX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   2(12)
LA PESCO MX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
TAMPICO MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  12(15)  21(36)   4(40)
TAMPICO MX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)   2(15)
TAMPICO MX     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
 
TUXPAN MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  16(19)  16(35)   4(39)
TUXPAN MX      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)   1(13)
TUXPAN MX      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
VERACRUZ MX    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  11(17)   5(22)   2(24)
VERACRUZ MX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)
VERACRUZ MX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
FRONTERA MX    34  X   4( 4)   9(13)   6(19)   5(24)   1(25)   X(25)
FRONTERA MX    50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)
FRONTERA MX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   9( 9)   5(14)   3(17)   3(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BELIZE         34 61   X(61)   X(61)   1(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)
BELIZE         50  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:02 UTC