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Tropical Storm RICK


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 20 2009
 
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT RICK
CONTINUES TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  THE CLOUD
PATTERN APPEARS RATHER DISORGANIZED...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A RECENT CONVECTIVE BURST. DVORAK FINAL
T-NUMBERS OF 3.0 AND 3.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY...
SUGGEST THAT SLOW WEAKENING HAS CONTINUED. BASED UPON THE LATEST
INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55 KT.
 
UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES SUGGEST THAT 15-20 KT OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR CONTINUES OVER RICK...AND GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THIS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH LANDFALL.  IN ADDITION....A FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE
AIR MASS AT MID/UPPER-LEVELS LIES IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE STORM
CIRCULATION AND CONTINUES TO NEGATIVELY IMPACT THE CYCLONE.  THESE
FACTORS SUGGEST ADDITIONAL...GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO...EVEN THOUGH SSTS INCREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.  THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND THE MODEL INTENSITY
CONSENSUS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF FORECAST RICK
TO RE-INTENSIFY TO A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.
 
LATEST SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT RICK MAY HAVE TURNED TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND SLOWED DOWN DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...
WITH THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT 020/05.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO
THE GREAT BASIN...AND GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS FEATURE
SHOULD AMPLIFY FURTHER OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DURING THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS.  IN RESPONSE...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS RICK TURNING
NORTHEASTWARD WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED THROUGH LANDFALL IN
WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED
FARTHER EAST TO MATCH THE TREND IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE AND MODEL
CONSENSUS...BOTH SUGGESTING A SHARPER RECURVATURE.  ON THIS
TRACK...RICK IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND INLAND OVER WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO JUST
AFTER 36 HOURS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/0900Z 19.4N 111.5W    55 KT
 12HR VT     20/1800Z 20.6N 110.9W    50 KT
 24HR VT     21/0600Z 22.0N 109.3W    50 KT
 36HR VT     21/1800Z 23.6N 107.3W    45 KT
 48HR VT     22/0600Z 25.5N 104.5W    20 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     23/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:31 UTC