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Hurricane LINDA


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152009
800 AM PDT THU SEP 10 2009

ENHANCED BD-CURVE INFRARED IMAGERY AND AN AQUA-1 AMSR-E COLOR
COMPOSITE MICROWAVE OVERPASS SUGGEST THAT LINDA HAS STRENGTHENED
SOME THIS MORNING. DESPITE 15-20 KT OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR...THE
CYCLONE STRUCTURE IS COMPRISED OF IMPROVED BANDING OVER THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND A 90 PERCENT CLOSED EYEWALL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SET AT 75 KT...AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK AND AMSU TC
INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL AGREE WITH A
WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASICALLY A REPEAT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SIDES WITH THE ICON
MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 330/8 KT...WITHIN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW PRODUCED BY A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST OF
LINDA AND A STATIONARY MID TO UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THE
CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE IN THIS DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. BEYOND DAY 3...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AND THE GFDN/GFDL
SUGGEST THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY TO THE NORTH OF
LINDA. AT THE SAME TIME...THE RIDGE TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. AS A
RESULT...LINDA SHOULD SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY IN FORWARD SPEED WITH A
GENERAL NORTHWARD COMPONENT AFTER THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS BASED ON THIS SCENARIO AND FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL BLEND. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/1500Z 18.4N 130.1W    75 KT
 12HR VT     11/0000Z 19.4N 130.6W    65 KT
 24HR VT     11/1200Z 20.6N 131.4W    55 KT
 36HR VT     12/0000Z 21.3N 132.1W    50 KT
 48HR VT     12/1200Z 21.7N 132.8W    35 KT
 72HR VT     13/1200Z 22.4N 133.7W    25 KT
 96HR VT     14/1200Z 23.0N 134.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     15/1200Z 23.5N 134.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:27 UTC