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Tropical Storm KEVIN


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142009
800 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2009
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 2113Z 36 GHZ AMSR-E MICROWAVE
OVERPASS SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT OF A BANDING EYE FEATURE. A
CIMSS/NESDIS/NRL AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE AROUND THE SAME TIME
PERIOD REFLECTS AN INTENSITY OF 48 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON THESE DATA AND A BLEND OF THE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  AFTERWARD...KEVIN IS EXPECTED
WEAKEN AS THE CYCLONE MOVES WITHIN INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR DUE TO
THE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE JIMENA AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
WATER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE ICON
INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. 

KEVIN IS CURRENTLY RESIDING WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
CENTRAL MEXICO...AND A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SITUATED BETWEEN THE
CYCLONE AND HURRICANE JIMENA. CONSEQUENTLY...THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN
HAS RESULTED IN A NORTHWARD DRIFT 350/5 DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. AS
NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TWO MODEL CLUSTERS DESCRIBE
DISSIMILAR FORECAST SCENARIOS. THE GFDL/GFDN/NOGAPS/GFS/GFS
ENSEMBLE/UKMET AND THE ECMWF GROUP SUGGEST A GRADUAL NORTH TO
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SECOND
CLUSTER INCLUDES THE HWRF/FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE CANADIAN. THESE
MODELS DIFFER BY SHOWING A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO
A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE AFTER
THE 72 HOUR PERIOD. SINCE THE SPREAD BETWEEN THE TWO MODEL
GROUPINGS REMAINS QUITE LARGE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
CLOSELY TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND SLIGHTLY FAVORS THE MORE
DOMINANT CLUSTER.  A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 48 HOURS IS
ALSO REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST TRACK.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/0300Z 13.4N 122.1W    45 KT
 12HR VT     30/1200Z 13.9N 122.2W    50 KT
 24HR VT     31/0000Z 14.8N 122.0W    50 KT
 36HR VT     31/1200Z 15.6N 121.5W    50 KT
 48HR VT     01/0000Z 16.3N 121.0W    45 KT
 72HR VT     02/0000Z 17.5N 120.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     03/0000Z 18.5N 119.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     04/0000Z 19.0N 118.5W    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:25 UTC