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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E


ZCZC MIAPWSEP3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009               
0300 UTC SAT AUG 29 2009                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WAS LOCATED   
NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM        
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                    
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       1       1       1       1       1       4
TROP DEPRESSION 15      17       9       4       3       4      16
TROPICAL STORM  83      76      69      51      37      41      52
HURRICANE        2       6      22      45      60      54      28
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        2       5      18      34      39      35      23
HUR CAT 2        X       X       3       7      15      13       4
HUR CAT 3        X       X       1       3       6       5       1
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       1       1       1       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   40KT    45KT    55KT    65KT    75KT    75KT    65KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)   6(21)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   6(19)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
SAN JOSE CABO  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   8(16)
LA PAZ         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
LA PAZ         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)
 
BAHIA KINO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GUAYMAS        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   5( 9)   2(11)   X(11)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   5( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
 
L CARDENAS     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  20(21)  30(51)   4(55)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  17(22)   2(24)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)   6(20)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   5( 9)   1(10)
 
CLIPPERTON IS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ROBERTS                                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:24 UTC