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Hurricane JIMENA


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 01 2009
 
MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM THE NASA TRMM AND AQUA SATELLITES...ALONG
WITH IR IMAGERY...INDICATE THAT JIMENA IS UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE.  THE SMALL EYE SEEN EARLIER IS BECOMING RAGGED
AND CLOUD-FILLED...WHILE THE MICROWAVE DATA SHOWS AN OUTER EYEWALL
ROUGHLY 30 N MI WIDE.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT HAS JUST REACHED THE CENTER...REPORTING THAT THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 945 MB...AND THAT THE 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN THOSE MEASURED YESTERDAY.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 125 KT...AND THIS COULD BE
GENEROUS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS WOBBLING BETWEEN 325 AND 330 DEGREES AT ABOUT
10 KT.  JIMENA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN A GENERAL NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BETWEEN A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH ALL THE TRACK GUIDANCE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.  THE FORECAST BECOME LESS CONFIDENT
FROM 72 HR ON DUE TO A LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE.  THE GFDL...
GFDN...AND NOGAPS CALL FOR JIMENA TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THE REST
OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE EITHER STALLS THE CYCLONE OVER CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA OR TURNS IT WESTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC.  OVERALL...
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD...AND SO HAS
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  AFTER 72 HR...THE NEW TRACK COMPROMISES
BETWEEN THE MODEL EXTREMES BY CALLING FOR A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION.
THE NEW TRACK CALLS FOR LANDFALL ON THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA IN 36-48 HR.
 
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT JIMENA COULD INTENSIFY SOME AT THE END OF THE
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IF THAT HAPPENS BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  OTHERWISE...THE HURRICANE SHOULD
WEAKEN OVER STEADILY COOLER WATER UNTIL LANDFALL...ALTHOUGH IT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL THAT TIME.  JIMENA SHOULD
WEAKEN FASTER DURING ITS TIME OVER BAJA.  AFTER 72 HR...JIMENA
COULD BE MOVING INTO THE WESTERLIES OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...
UNDER STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA...OR OVER COLD WATERS WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.  ALL
OF THOSE POSSIBILITIES SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN TO A
REMNANT LOW BY 120 HR.
 
INTERESTS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED THAT STRONG
WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER BY SEVERAL HOURS...SO
PREPARATIONS NEED TO BE COMPLETED VERY SOON. REMEMBER NOT TO FOCUS
ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE DANGEROUS IMPACTS EXTEND SOME
DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER. THE FORECAST TRACK OF JIMENA IS ALMOST
PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND SMALL DEVIATIONS
LEFT OR RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD RESULT IN LARGE ERRORS IN BOTH THE
LOCATION AND TIMING OF LANDFALL.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/1500Z 21.0N 110.7W   125 KT
 12HR VT     02/0000Z 22.4N 111.5W   125 KT
 24HR VT     02/1200Z 24.3N 112.3W   115 KT
 36HR VT     03/0000Z 25.9N 112.9W   100 KT
 48HR VT     03/1200Z 27.1N 113.3W    70 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     04/1200Z 28.5N 113.5W    45 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     05/1200Z 30.0N 113.5W    30 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT     06/1200Z 31.5N 113.0W    20 KT...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:24 UTC