Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm IGNACIO


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122009
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 25 2009
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF IGNACIO
HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH SOME HINT OF THE BEGINNING STAGE
OF A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FORMING. EVEN THOUGH THE NORTHWEST
SEMICIRCLE IS VOID OF DEEP CONVECTIVE CLOUDS...A WELL-DEFINED BAND
IS OBSERVED OVER THE SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN
AT T3.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS
MAINTAINED AT 45 KT.  A 1417 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALED A FEW
UNCONTAMINATED 45-50 KT WIND VECTORS...WHICH AGREE WELL WITH THE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE. EVEN THOUGH THE SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT...THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING WILL
BE CLOSING SOON SINCE THE CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN OVER 26.5C WATERS
FOR LESS THAN 12 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING...AND IGNACIO
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS.
 
THE EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS AND RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE FIXES HAVE
YIELDED FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE ESTIMATES OF THE CENTER LOCATION.
BASED UPON THOSE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/11.  THERE
HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.  IGNACIO
SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTHWESTERLY COURSE AS IT MOVES AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES INTO THE EAST PACIFIC TO NEAR 130W.  TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ASSUME A MORE WESTERLY
TRACK ONCE IGNACIO WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE SHALLOW.  THE OFFICIAL
TRACK DIFFERS LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES BETWEEN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/2100Z 19.4N 120.3W    45 KT
 12HR VT     26/0600Z 20.4N 121.8W    50 KT
 24HR VT     26/1800Z 21.9N 123.8W    50 KT
 36HR VT     27/0600Z 23.6N 125.7W    45 KT
 48HR VT     27/1800Z 25.2N 127.6W    35 KT
 72HR VT     28/1800Z 27.0N 130.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     29/1800Z 27.0N 134.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:23 UTC