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Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112009
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 22 2009
 
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS HAS MAINTAINED A VIGOROUS CIRCULATION DURING
THE LAST 24 HOURS...WITH PULSES OF DEEP CONVECTION COINCIDING WITH
THE DIURNAL NOCTURNAL MAXIMUM.  HOWEVER...MORE RECENTLY A DEEP
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER HAS PERSISTED FOR SOME TIME OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE...EVEN PARTIALLY COVERING WHAT WAS EARLIER AN EXPOSED
CIRCULATION CENTER. ADDITIONALLY...AN EXPANDING CIRRUS CANOPY IS
EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...SUGGESTIVE OF A BETTER ESTABLISHED
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. SINCE THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT
AND THERE HAS BEEN A FURTHER INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION...THIS SYSTEM
CAN NOW BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. BASED UPON DVORAK
T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB OF 2.0 AND AND EARLIER QUIKSCAT
PASS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/09. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE
DEPRESSION TO THE SOUTH OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON
A GENERAL WESTERLY COURSE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AROUND 72 HOURS
AND BEYOND...A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE NORTH OF HAWAII SHOULD
LIFT NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC.  THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD TEMPORARILY WEAKEN
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE IT
TO MOVE ON A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED TO THE WEST.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT BY SHOWING A SLOWER-MOVING CYCLONE TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD.  ON THE CURRENT TRACK...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD
PASS 140W AND ENTER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY IN APPROXIMATELY 24 HOURS.
 
THE DEPRESSION REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A MODEST EASTERLY SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  EVEN THOUGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY WARM ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO HAMPER DEVELOPMENT AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE TO NO
INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT-TERM. BEYOND 72 HOURS...THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THAT THE SHEAR COULD DECREASE...WHICH COULD LEAVE SOME
OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
CONSERVATIVE AND INCREASES THE INTENSITY ON DAYS 4 AND 5...IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS ICON AND LGEM.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/1500Z 13.6N 136.9W    30 KT
 12HR VT     23/0000Z 13.7N 138.1W    30 KT
 24HR VT     23/1200Z 14.1N 139.6W    35 KT
 36HR VT     24/0000Z 14.6N 141.2W    35 KT
 48HR VT     24/1200Z 15.0N 142.9W    40 KT
 72HR VT     25/1200Z 15.5N 146.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     26/1200Z 15.5N 149.0W    50 KT
120HR VT     27/1200Z 15.5N 151.5W    60 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA/READ
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:22 UTC