Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm GUILLERMO


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102009
200 PM PDT THU AUG 13 2009
 
VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOW THAT GUILLERMO HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON.  BANDING CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND IS
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.  IN FACT...THE EARLIER
SSMIS OVERPASS INDICATED A BANDING EYE FEATURE.  ACCORDINGLY...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT...WHICH ALSO IS SUPPORTED
BY A BLEND OF THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.  THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS...ALL INDICATING STRENGTHENING TO A LOW END
HURRICANE IN 12 HOURS AND MAINTAINING THIS INTENSITY THROUGH THE 36
HOUR PERIOD.  AFTERWARD...GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER COOLER
WATER AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A
WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. 

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/13...WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF A RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE NORTH.  THE
LARGE-SCALE AND HURRICANE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
RIDGE MAINTAINING STRENGTH AND A GENERAL EAST-WEST ORIENTATION
DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS.  AFTERWARD...A TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST IS
INDICATED AS GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO BE INFLUENCED MORE BY THE
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.  THE FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS
MODEL AND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.   

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/2100Z 17.2N 123.1W    60 KT
 12HR VT     14/0600Z 17.6N 125.1W    65 KT
 24HR VT     14/1800Z 18.2N 127.9W    70 KT
 36HR VT     15/0600Z 18.8N 130.7W    65 KT
 48HR VT     15/1800Z 19.4N 133.6W    60 KT
 72HR VT     16/1800Z 20.5N 139.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     17/1800Z 21.0N 144.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     18/1800Z 21.0N 149.0W    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:22 UTC