Hurricane FELICIA

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HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082009
800 PM PDT WED AUG 05 2009
 
FELICIA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING...WITH SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES INCREASING TO 127 KT FROM TAFB AND 115 KT FROM
SAB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THUS INCREASED TO 120 KT.  THE
HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT-VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH
EXCELLENT CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND FAIR OUTFLOW
ELSEWHERE.  JUST-RECEIVED AMSU DATA SHOWS THAT FELICIA HAS A CLOSED
EYEWALL WITH NO SIGNS OF ANY OUTER EYEWALL FORMING AT THIS TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10...A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
MOTION.  FELICIA...AS WELL AS TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE TO ITS
NORTHEAST...ARE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM MEXICO.  A LARGE MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 24N148W AND COVERS THE AREA FROM 18N-35N BETWEEN
140W-156W.  A STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
PACIFIC NORTH AND WEST OF FELICIA.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST
THE LOW TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE LOW NEAR AND EAST OF HAWAII AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
WEST OF HAWAII.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS PATTERN BY
FORECASTING FELICIA TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR 48
HR...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST.  AFTER 72 HR...THE
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES NEAR
FELICIA...WITH UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE
MID-LEVEL FLOW.  THIS SUGGESTS THE CYCLONE COULD SHEAR APART...WITH
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER CARRIED WESTWARD IN THE EASTERLIES.  THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER
72 HR AND A LITTLE SLOWER.  IT IS DOWN THE LEFT SIDE OF THE
ENVELOPE OF DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.  
 
A LITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT BEFORE FELICIA
MOVES OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  AFTER THAT...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH 72 HR AS THE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK COOL TO NEAR 24C.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AFTER 72 HR...AS THE
FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO MOVE OVER INCREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  HOWEVER...BASED ON THE THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS AGREEING WELL IN FORECASTING FELICIA TO SHEAR APART DURING
THAT TIME...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED WEAKENING
AFTER 72 HR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/0300Z 14.9N 130.5W   120 KT
 12HR VT     06/1200Z 15.8N 131.7W   120 KT
 24HR VT     07/0000Z 17.1N 133.2W   110 KT
 36HR VT     07/1200Z 18.3N 135.0W   100 KT
 48HR VT     08/0000Z 19.4N 136.9W    85 KT
 72HR VT     09/0000Z 20.5N 142.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     10/0000Z 20.5N 147.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     11/0000Z 20.5N 153.0W    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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