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Tropical Storm CARLOS


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009
800 AM PDT MON JUL 13 2009
 
A 1045 UTC TRMM MICROWAVE PASS INDICATES THAT CARLOS HAS BEEN MOVING
SOUTH OF DUE WEST AT 260/12 OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND IS A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED.  THE SAME PASS IS ALSO
SHOWING THAT THE CONVECTIVE BANDING MAY BE BECOMING A LITTLE MORE
ORGANIZED AROUND THE CENTER.  HOWEVER...THE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT.
 
WHEREAS IT APPEARED THAT CARLOS WAS DETACHING FROM THE ITCZ A COUPLE
OF DAYS AGO...SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW SUGGESTS THAT IT HAS BECOME
RE-ATTACHED TO THE AXIS. THIS MIGHT BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE WEST TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MOTION OVER THE PAST 12-24 HOURS. THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE STILL SUGGESTS THAT CARLOS SHOULD GAIN SOME LATITUDE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT THE RECENT MOTION MAKES THIS
SCENARIO UNCERTAIN. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST EXCEPT THAT IT IS SHIFTED AS MUCH AS A DEGREE
FARTHER SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UPDATED INITIAL POSITION.
 
CARLOS' INVOLVEMENT WITH THE ITCZ COMPLICATES THE INTENSITY
FORECAST. IF THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE AXIS...RE-STRENGTHENING WOULD BE HIGHLY UNLIKELY. IN
FACT...SOME OF THE MORE RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE
GFS AND ECMWF...KEEP CARLOS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND OPEN IT
INTO A TROUGH VERY SOON. THE HWRF IS ALSO PESSIMISTIC AND
ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE IN A FEW DAYS. CONVERSELY...THE
SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY OVER THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE THE GFDL RE-STRENGTHENS THE SYSTEM TO A
HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT THAT IT BRINGS THE INTENSITY DOWN A
LITTLE FASTER BY DAY 5 DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR.  WHILE THE
OFFICIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT INDICATES A 50% CHANCE THAT
CARLOS WILL BE A DEPRESSION OR DISSIPATED BY DAY 5...I SUSPECT THE
CHANCES ARE HIGHER THAN THAT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/1500Z  9.6N 125.3W    45 KT
 12HR VT     14/0000Z  9.6N 127.1W    50 KT
 24HR VT     14/1200Z  9.9N 129.3W    50 KT
 36HR VT     15/0000Z 10.2N 131.5W    55 KT
 48HR VT     15/1200Z 10.5N 133.5W    55 KT
 72HR VT     16/1200Z 11.0N 137.5W    55 KT
 96HR VT     17/1200Z 11.5N 142.0W    50 KT
120HR VT     18/1200Z 11.5N 148.0W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:17 UTC