Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm BLANCA


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032009
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 07 2009

A RECENT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRED VERY NEAR THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION...SO THE SYSTEM IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL STORM
FOR NOW.  THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 35 KT FROM TAFB.  IT WAS A BIT SURPRISING TO SEE THE
RECENT REJUVENATION OF CONVECTION GIVEN THAT THE SSTS ARE LIKELY
LOWER THAN 24 DEG C.  HOWEVER SINCE BLANCA WILL BE MOVING OVER EVEN
COOLER WATERS...IT SHOULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SOON AND
BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS OR LESS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS...ICON.

MICROWAVE AND GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE FIXES GIVE A CURRENT MOTION OF
ABOUT 300/10...SO THE ANTICIPATED DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED HAS NOT
YET TAKEN PLACE.  NONETHELESS...THE WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF BLANCA SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL
DECELERATION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND A MORE WESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED WHEN THE CYCLONE BECOMES A WEAK LOW.  THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS MORE OR LESS THE SAME TRAJECTORY AS THE
PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS A LITTLE FASTER BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT
MOTION.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/0300Z 20.3N 117.8W    35 KT
 12HR VT     08/1200Z 21.1N 119.1W    30 KT
 24HR VT     09/0000Z 21.7N 120.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     09/1200Z 22.2N 121.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     10/0000Z 22.5N 122.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     11/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:16 UTC