ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032009 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 07 2009 A RECENT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRED VERY NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION...SO THE SYSTEM IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL STORM FOR NOW. THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KT FROM TAFB. IT WAS A BIT SURPRISING TO SEE THE RECENT REJUVENATION OF CONVECTION GIVEN THAT THE SSTS ARE LIKELY LOWER THAN 24 DEG C. HOWEVER SINCE BLANCA WILL BE MOVING OVER EVEN COOLER WATERS...IT SHOULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SOON AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS OR LESS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS...ICON. MICROWAVE AND GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE FIXES GIVE A CURRENT MOTION OF ABOUT 300/10...SO THE ANTICIPATED DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED HAS NOT YET TAKEN PLACE. NONETHELESS...THE WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF BLANCA SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL DECELERATION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND A MORE WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED WHEN THE CYCLONE BECOMES A WEAK LOW. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS MORE OR LESS THE SAME TRAJECTORY AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS A LITTLE FASTER BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT MOTION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/0300Z 20.3N 117.8W 35 KT 12HR VT 08/1200Z 21.1N 119.1W 30 KT 24HR VT 09/0000Z 21.7N 120.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 09/1200Z 22.2N 121.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 10/0000Z 22.5N 122.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:16 UTC