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Tropical Depression ONE-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012009
800 PM PDT THU JUN 18 2009
 
CORRECTED WIND TO WINDOW IN THIRD PARAGRAPH

THE DEPRESSION APPEARED TO BE ON THE VERGE OF REACHING TROPICAL
STORM STATUS THIS EVENING...BUT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS THE COLD
CLOUD TOPS HAVE SUBSTANTIALLY DIMINISHED AND BANDING FEATURES HAVE
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED.  AS A RESULT...THE DVORAK T NUMBERS CAME
FROM IN TAFB AND SAB LOWER AT 1.5...THOUGH THE CI NUMBERS REMAINED
AT 2.0.  THUS CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
A WELL-PLACED AQUA MICROWAVE PASS AT 2026Z ALLOWED FOR A MODERATELY
CONFIDENT INITIAL POSITION AND ESTIMATED 20 DEGREE/7 KT INITIAL
MOTION.  THIS NORTH-NORTHEAST MOTION IS PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY A VERY
DEEP TROUGH WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS IF THE CYCLONE RETAINS DEEP
CONVECTION AND A MEDIUM TO DEEP VORTEX.  BECAUSE OF THE GFS'
ERRONEOUSLY WEAK DEPICTION OF THE VORTEX AT THE INITIAL TIME...THE
VERY QUICK NORTHWARD TRACK BY THE GFS AND THE HRWF APPEAR TO BE
UNREALISTIC.  ADDITIONALLY...THE EGRI TRACKER LOST THE VORTEX FOR
SOME REASON...SO THE SLOW NORTHWARD TRACKING UKMI WAS UTILIZED
INSTEAD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS THUS A BLEND OF THE
UKMET...ECMWF...AND GFDL MODELS...AND IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN...AND
TO THE RIGHT OF...THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
IS FOR THE CYCLONE TO STALL JUST OFF OF THE MEXICO COAST IN ABOUT
TWO DAYS IF IT SHEARS APART AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY STEERED BY WEAK LOW
LEVEL FLOW.  BECAUSE OF THE FARTHER EAST FORECAST TRACK...A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS AND THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MEXICAN
COAST.
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS ABOUT A 12 TO 18 HOUR WINDOW TO INTENSIFY INTO A
TROPICAL STORM WHILE THE VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS LOW.  THOUGH THE
CYCLONE WILL REMAIN OVER WARM WATER BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN
MEXICO...THE MODERATE SHEAR AND STABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION.  ALL OF THE INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM...AS DOES THIS
FORECAST.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/0300Z 18.9N 107.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     19/1200Z 20.2N 107.3W    35 KT
 24HR VT     20/0000Z 21.4N 107.1W    35 KT
 36HR VT     20/1200Z 22.5N 106.8W    35 KT
 48HR VT     21/0000Z 23.7N 106.5W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     22/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BEVEN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:15 UTC