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Tropical Depression ONE-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012009
200 PM PDT THU JUN 18 2009

CORRECTED FOR TYPO
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION IS LOCATED FARTHER SOUTHEAST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...
JUST NORTH OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
RAISED TO 30 KT BASED ON AN EXCELLENT 1643 UTC ASCAT PASS THAT
SHOWED A PATCH OF WIND RETRIEVALS NEAR 30 KT SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER. THIS INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY DVORAK
T-NUMBERS OF 2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AT 1800 UTC.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 360/06. THE GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CUTS OFF OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HOWEVER...THERE IS
DISAGREEMENT IN THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK. THE HWRF AND DEEP-LAYER
BAM BOTH TAKE THE VORTEX UNREALISTICALLY FAR TO THE NORTH AFTER
LANDFALL. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS...GFDL...CANADIAN AND NOGAPS
EITHER SHOW THE CYCLONE MAKING A SHARP SOUTHEASTWARD TURN BEFORE
REACHING THE COAST OR LOSE THE VORTEX ENTIRELY. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT AND IS SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE ADJUSTMENT IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND
THE SLOWER INITIAL MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM
MOVING INLAND BY 48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE FORWARD SPEED IS DECREASED
AT 36 AND 48 HOURS GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE AT
THIS TIME.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN AS WELL. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASING OVER THE SYSTEM TONIGHT...BUT
REMAINING LESS THAN 20 KT. WHILE THE SHIPS AND THE LGEM SHOW LITTLE
CHANGE IN INTENSITY THROUGH 48 HOURS...THE GFDL AND HWRF SHOW THE
SYSTEM GETTING CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY IN THE NEXT 24 TO
30 HOURS. GIVEN THAT IT WOULD TAKE ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION FOR THE SYSTEM TO REACH TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO TROPICAL STORM
STATUS BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST. THE INTENSITY
PROBABILITIES SHOW A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE SYSTEM BEING A
TROPICAL STORM AT 24 HOURS AND 36 HOURS.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/2100Z 18.3N 108.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     19/0600Z 19.4N 108.0W    30 KT
 24HR VT     19/1800Z 21.0N 107.7W    35 KT
 36HR VT     20/0600Z 22.6N 107.3W    35 KT
 48HR VT     20/1800Z 24.1N 106.9W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:15 UTC