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Tropical Depression IDA


ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9         
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009               
1500 UTC FRI NOV 06 2009                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       6       8       8       9      14      19      28
TROP DEPRESSION 68      41      27      22      22      21      24
TROPICAL STORM  26      49      59      56      50      46      38
HURRICANE        1       2       6      13      14      15      11
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        X       2       4      11      11      12      10
HUR CAT 2        1       1       1       2       3       2       1
HUR CAT 3        X       X       X       1       1       1       1
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   30KT    35KT    40KT    45KT    45KT    45KT    40KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   3( 9)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   5(11)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   5( 9)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   5(12)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   4(13)
GFMX 290N 870W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   3(13)
GFMX 280N 890W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
GFMX 280N 890W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   3( 9)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)   2(12)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)  13(25)   4(29)   1(30)
COZUMEL MX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
COZUMEL MX     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
BELIZE         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
GUANAJA        34  1   3( 4)   6(10)   4(14)   2(16)   X(16)   X(16)
GUANAJA        50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PUERTO CABEZAS 34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)  16(24)   3(27)   1(28)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)   2(11)   1(12)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:13 UTC