Tropical Storm ERIKA

ZCZC MIATCMAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062009
1500 UTC WED SEP 02 2009
 
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GUADELOUPE.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE...ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...
MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND
ST. EUSTATIUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ERIKA.  TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A
PORTION OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N  60.4W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE  75SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N  60.4W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N  60.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.9N  61.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  75SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.4N  62.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...105NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.0N  64.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...105NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.6N  65.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...105NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.0N  68.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  75SE   0SW   0NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 21.5N  71.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 23.5N  73.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N  60.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
 
 
NNNN