Tropical Storm ERIKA

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TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062009
0300 UTC WED SEP 02 2009
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST.
MAARTEN...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST.
MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...U.S. AND
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERIKA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N  57.6W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......105NE  90SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  90SE   0SW  50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N  57.6W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  57.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.0N  58.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...105NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.5N  60.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  30SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.0N  61.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  45SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.5N  63.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  45SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.0N  66.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 45NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  45SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 22.6N  68.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 24.5N  71.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N  57.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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