Hurricane BILL
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HURRICANE BILL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1500 UTC SUN AUG 23 2009
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 43.3
NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS
...85 MPH...140 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 3 11 22 NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION X 7 23 39 35 NA NA
TROPICAL STORM 56 74 66 46 38 NA NA
HURRICANE 43 19 8 5 5 NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 41 17 7 4 4 NA NA
HUR CAT 2 2 2 1 1 1 NA NA
HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 65KT 55KT 45KT 35KT 30KT NA NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X 49(49) 4(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 14 70(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X 17(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 81 17(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)
ILE ST PIERRE 50 4 44(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48)
ILE ST PIERRE 64 X 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
BURGEO NFLD 34 89 5(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94)
BURGEO NFLD 50 8 12(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
BURGEO NFLD 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PTX BASQUES 34 89 X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89)
PTX BASQUES 50 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
PTX BASQUES 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
EDDY POINT NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
EDDY POINT NS 50 58 X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58)
EDDY POINT NS 64 12 X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
SYDNEY NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SYDNEY NS 50 51 X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51)
SYDNEY NS 64 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
SABLE ISLAND 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SABLE ISLAND 50 18 X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
HALIFAX NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
HALIFAX NS 50 28 X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
HALIFAX NS 64 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
YARMOUTH NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MONCTON NB 34 15 X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
ST JOHN NB 34 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
EASTPORT ME 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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