Hurricane BILL
ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE BILL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
0300 UTC SUN AUG 23 2009
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.1
NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS
...85 MPH...140 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 5 10 22 24 32
TROP DEPRESSION X 4 22 31 36 29 28
TROPICAL STORM 29 69 66 50 37 41 35
HURRICANE 71 27 7 8 5 6 6
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 65 23 6 7 4 5 5
HUR CAT 2 5 2 1 1 1 1 1
HUR CAT 3 1 1 1 X X X X
HUR CAT 4 1 X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 70KT 60KT 45KT 40KT 30KT 30KT 25KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) 25(25) 3(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X 6( 6) 48(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X 45(45) 34(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79)
ILE ST PIERRE 50 X 4( 4) 19(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X 55(55) 16(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71)
BURGEO NFLD 50 X 6( 6) 10(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
BURGEO NFLD 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PTX BASQUES 34 X 61(61) 3(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64)
PTX BASQUES 50 X 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
PTX BASQUES 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
EDDY POINT NS 34 5 88(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93)
EDDY POINT NS 50 X 35(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35)
EDDY POINT NS 64 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
SYDNEY NS 34 1 87(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89)
SYDNEY NS 50 X 30(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30)
SYDNEY NS 64 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SABLE ISLAND 34 5 71(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76)
SABLE ISLAND 50 X 18(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
SABLE ISLAND 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
HALIFAX NS 34 58 38(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96)
HALIFAX NS 50 1 28(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29)
HALIFAX NS 64 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
YARMOUTH NS 34 89 2(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91)
YARMOUTH NS 50 6 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
YARMOUTH NS 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
MONCTON NB 34 7 17(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
ST JOHN NB 34 25 7(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32)
EASTPORT ME 34 25 2(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 12 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
AUGUSTA ME 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PORTLAND ME 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CONCORD NH 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BOSTON MA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
HYANNIS MA 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
NANTUCKET MA 34 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
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FORECASTER BRENNAN
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