Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane BILL


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032009
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 22 2009
 
AFTER DIMINISHING FOR A TIME...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
RECENT INCREASE OF COLD CLOUD TOPS NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTER OF BILL. WHILE THE EYE IS NOT READILY APPARENT IN
GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...MICROWAVE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS AT LEAST A
PARTIAL EYEWALL NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD
AT 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON FINAL CI-NUMBERS OF 4.5 FROM
TAFB AND SAB AT 0000 UTC. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WILL BE INVESTIGATING BILL LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING...AND WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE
LOCATION...STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OF BILL.
 
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BILL APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN MOVING JUST EAST
OF DUE NORTH...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 015/22. THE TRACK
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE RECURVATURE OF
BILL IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND LIES NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TRACK GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...
SHOWING A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE TRACK FORECAST
LIES SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AS THE POST-TROPICAL BILL APPROACHES THE BRITISH
ISLES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
BILL WILL SOON BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM
AND INTO A MORE BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BILL WILL BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS...AND
THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE TRANSITION PROCESS BY EARLY
MONDAY AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM NEWFOUNDLAND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST SHOWS SLOW WEAKENING THROUGH 24 HOURS DUE TO COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. BEYOND
THAT TIME...A MORE SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST...
ALONG WITH A LARGE EXPANSION OF THE 34-KT WIND RADII...AS BILL
COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. 
 
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY BILL ARE STILL AFFECTING THE EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY...CAUSING EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE AND METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES FOR
MORE DETAILS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0300Z 39.1N  67.8W    75 KT
 12HR VT     23/1200Z 42.3N  65.7W    70 KT
 24HR VT     24/0000Z 46.3N  59.2W    60 KT
 36HR VT     24/1200Z 49.3N  49.0W    45 KT
 48HR VT     25/0000Z 51.0N  37.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     26/0000Z 53.0N  16.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     27/0000Z 60.0N   6.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     28/0000Z 64.0N   4.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:05 UTC