Tropical Depression TWO

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022009
500 AM AST THU AUG 13 2009
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS A RATHER MEAGER AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING
WITH JUST A FEW CELLS AROUND THE EXPOSED CENTER.   SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE DROPPING...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 25 KT.  IF SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT DEVELOP
SOON... THE SYSTEM COULD BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. 
ASSUMING THE DEPRESSION SURVIVES...THE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS IS MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING WATER TEMPERATURES WEST OF 40W AND PERHAPS A
DECREASE IN MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT STILL SHOWS THE DEPRESSION
EVENTUALLY BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM.  THIS IS A PRETTY LOW
CONFIDENCE INTENSITY FORECAST AS THE DEPRESSION MAY NOT EVEN
SURVIVE THE DAY.
 
THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND A
TWELVE-HOUR MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/10.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THAT THIS WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A DAY OR SO
WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THEREAFTER AS A WEAKNESS
DEVELOPS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW INDICATE
THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO BE AFFECTED
SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND HAVE SHIFTED THE
TRACK EQUATORWARD AS A RESULT.  THE HWRF CONTINUES ON ITS OWN BY
MOVING THE SYSTEM MORE TO THE NORTH...WHILE THE REST OF THE
GUIDANCE IS PRETTY WELL-CLUSTERED ON A MORE SOUTHERN PATH.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD AND WITH MANY RELIABLE
MODELS STILL SOUTH OF THE NHC TRACK...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO
SEE THE FORECAST MOVE FARTHER SOUTH LATER ON.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/0900Z 14.0N  36.9W    25 KT
 12HR VT     13/1800Z 14.0N  38.5W    25 KT
 24HR VT     14/0600Z 14.2N  40.7W    30 KT
 36HR VT     14/1800Z 14.4N  43.0W    35 KT
 48HR VT     15/0600Z 14.9N  45.9W    40 KT
 72HR VT     16/0600Z 16.5N  52.0W    40 KT
 96HR VT     17/0600Z 19.0N  59.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     18/0600Z 22.5N  65.0W    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
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