Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm POLO


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP182008
700 AM PST MON NOV 03 2008
 
POLO IS A MIDGET TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH A RATHER TINY AREA OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. WHILE AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE HAS BEEN
EVIDENT IN THE GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY...CLOUD-TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
AND SAB REMAIN UNCHANGED AT A 2.5 CI NUMBER. WINDS IN SUCH SMALL
SYSTEMS COULD BE HIGHER THAN INDICATED FROM DVORAK...BUT IN THE
ABSENCE OF IN-SITU OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN
35 KT.
 
POLO IS MOVING AT 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID TO LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHWEST.  A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN
THE RIDGE IN ABOUT ONE TO TWO DAYS...AND THE MODEL GUIDANCE
RESPONDS BY BENDING THE CYCLONE'S TRACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OR NORTHWEST.  AT THE LONG-LEAD...THE TRACK MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE
GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING A WEAKENING CYCLONE STAIR-STEPPING BACK
TOWARD THE WEST...WHILE THE GFDL AND HWRF HURRICANE MODELS RECURVE
A STRONGER POLO BACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE.  GIVEN THAT ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW A SUBSTANTIAL
INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR IN ABOUT 48-60 HOURS...THE FORECAST
TRACK LEANS TOWARD THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS OF A WEAKENING
TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS A BIT WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS...PERHAPS AS USUAL...NOT STRAIGHTFORWARD.
THE LOW VERTICAL SHEAR...DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT...AND WARM SSTS WOULD
SUGGEST ROBUST INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  BUT THE
UNCONDUCIVE THERMODYNAMICAL ENVIRONMENT AND RATHER MEAGER
CONVECTION WOULD SUGGEST OTHERWISE.  THE FORECAST INTENSITY SLOWLY
BRINGS THE WINDS UP THROUGH 48 HOURS...STRONGER THAN THE
STATISTICAL MODELS...BUT WEAKER THAN THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.
AFTER TWO DAYS...THE INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE
WEAKENING AND THE PREDICTED INTENSITY IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/1500Z  8.8N 113.2W    35 KT
 12HR VT     04/0000Z  8.9N 114.8W    40 KT
 24HR VT     04/1200Z  9.4N 116.8W    45 KT
 36HR VT     05/0000Z 10.4N 118.6W    50 KT
 48HR VT     05/1200Z 11.3N 120.3W    55 KT
 72HR VT     06/1200Z 12.5N 122.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     07/1200Z 13.5N 125.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     08/1200Z 14.0N 128.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:48 UTC