Tropical Storm ODILE

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TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162008
200 PM PDT FRI OCT 10 2008
 
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE DIMINISHED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT RECENTLY HAS INCREASED AGAIN.  THE BANDING LOOKS A
LITTLE LESS IMPRESSIVE NOW THAN IT DID EARLIER IN THE DAY. 
OVERALL...THERE DOESN'T SEEM TO BE ANY REASON TO ALTER THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 50 KT.  EASTERLY SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED
TO CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...SO ODILE STILL HAS AN
OPPORTUNITY TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IF IT REMAINS OFFSHORE. 
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS.  BY
THAT TIME...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR
AND MOST SHOW A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING TREND.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE LATEST GFDL AND HWRF RUNS SHOW EVEN MORE RAPID
WEAKENING...WHILE THE STATISTICAL MODELS KEEP ODILE A HURRICANE
THROUGH 5 DAYS.  SHOULD ODILE SURVIVE THE INCREASE IN SHEAR...
WATERS UNDER THE CYCLONE WILL BE VERY WARM...AND SO THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS ONLY A SLOW DECAY. 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/10...A LITTLE FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS MOTION.  THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF ODILE
COULD WEAKEN JUST A BIT AS NORBERT BEGINS ITS RECURVATURE OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS...ALLOWING ODILE TO GET VERY CLOSE TO THE
COASTLINE...BUT AFTER NORBERT CLEARS OUT A BUILDING RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BLOCK ODILE'S PATH AND TURN IT BACK TO THE WEST.  EVEN
THOUGH I HAVE ADJUSTED THE TRACK TO THE SOUTH AFTER 48 HOURS...MOST
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE EVEN FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND SLOWER THAN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/2100Z 15.3N  98.3W    50 KT
 12HR VT     11/0600Z 15.9N  99.6W    55 KT
 24HR VT     11/1800Z 16.6N 101.3W    60 KT
 36HR VT     12/0600Z 17.2N 102.8W    65 KT
 48HR VT     12/1800Z 17.4N 103.8W    60 KT
 72HR VT     13/1800Z 17.5N 105.5W    60 KT
 96HR VT     14/1800Z 17.5N 107.0W    55 KT
120HR VT     15/1800Z 17.5N 108.0W    50 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
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