Tropical Storm ODILE

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TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162008
200 PM PDT THU OCT 09 2008

THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE-OBSERVED CLOUD
PATTERN SINCE THIS MORNING...ALBEIT THE BANDING FEATURES ARE
PERHAPS A LITTLE LESS PROMINENT AT THIS TIME.  DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE ALSO UNCHANGED.  THEREFORE THE WIND SPEED IS HELD AT
45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO
BE WELL-DEFINED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION BUT
RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHEAST.  EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE AFFECTING ODILE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THAT SHEAR IS
PREDICTED TO INCREASE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER THE
LATEST SHIPS RUN...USING THE GFS OUTPUT...DOES NOT PREDICT THE
SHEAR TO BE QUITE AS STRONG AS IN THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS. 
SO...THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE LESS WEAKENING LATE IN
THE PERIOD.  OF COURSE...IF ODILE WERE TO INTERACT WITH LAND THE
INTENSITY EVOLUTION WOULD BE SUBSTANTIALLY DIFFERENT THAN INDICATED
HERE.

AFTER THE MORE WESTWARD MOTION NOTED THIS MORNING...THE TRACK HAS
TURNED BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...OR 290/10.  NOT MUCH ADJUSTMENT
IS MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO SHOULD PROVIDE A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
STEERING CURRENT FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A SELECTIVE CONSENSUS OF
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS THAT EXCLUDES THE LATEST U.K. MET. OFFICE RUN. 
IN THE LATTER MODEL'S FORECAST...THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CENTER OF
ODILE IS COMPLETELY SHEARED OFF AND PROCEEDS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
NEAR THE COAST WHEREAS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LEFT BEHIND TO
MEANDER AND WEAKEN NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.  THIS SCENARIO DOES
NOT SEEM REALISTIC AT THIS TIME.

THE LATEST NHC FORECAST...LIKE THE EARLIER ONES...KEEPS THE CENTER
OFFSHORE OF THE COAST THROUGH 5 DAYS.  HOWEVER SOME OF THE TRACK
MODELS...NOTABLY THE HWRF AND GFDL...BRING ODILE CLOSE TO THE COAST
OR ONSHORE IN 3-5 DAYS.  IN THE SHORTER TIME FRAME...A SIGNIFICANT
NORTHWARD DEVIATION IN THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE WOULD PROBABLY
REQUIRE WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO.  INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/2100Z 13.3N  95.3W    45 KT
 12HR VT     10/0600Z 13.9N  96.7W    55 KT
 24HR VT     10/1800Z 14.5N  98.5W    60 KT
 36HR VT     11/0600Z 15.4N 100.3W    65 KT
 48HR VT     11/1800Z 16.3N 102.0W    65 KT
 72HR VT     12/1800Z 18.0N 105.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     13/1800Z 19.5N 106.5W    65 KT
120HR VT     14/1800Z 21.0N 108.0W    60 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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