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Hurricane NORBERT


ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  20               
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008               
2100 UTC WED OCT 08 2008                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
115 KTS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR.                                      
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       X       X      10      68      NA
TROP DEPRESSION  X       X       X       1      23      26      NA
TROPICAL STORM   X       X       2      16      53       5      NA
HURRICANE       99      99      98      83      14       1      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        X       2      19      40      12       X      NA
HUR CAT 2        1      13      34      27       2       X      NA
HUR CAT 3       34      55      36      13       X       X      NA
HUR CAT 4       64      29       8       3       X       X      NA
HUR CAT 5        2       1       X       X       X       X      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND  120KT   115KT   105KT    95KT    70KT    25KT    NA  
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)   3(19)   X(19)
P ABREOJOS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
P ABREOJOS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   6(10)  24(34)   1(35)   X(35)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)  24(31)   2(33)   X(33)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
SAN JOSE CABO  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  37(44)   4(48)   X(48)
LA PAZ         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)   2(17)   X(17)
LA PAZ         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  28(30)   7(37)   X(37)
LORETO         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   2(10)   X(10)
LORETO         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
HERMOSILLO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)   X(11)
 
BAHIA KINO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   6(13)   X(13)
 
GUAYMAS        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   8(21)   X(21)
GUAYMAS        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  19(20)  10(30)   X(30)
HUATABAMPO     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  20(21)   8(29)   X(29)
LOS MOCHIS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  22(24)   5(29)   X(29)
CULICAN        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
CULICAN        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34 27  21(48)   4(52)   2(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  3   5( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  7  44(51)  18(69)   4(73)   2(75)   X(75)   X(75)
ISLA CLARION   50  1  10(11)  13(24)   3(27)   1(28)   X(28)   X(28)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   3( 3)   7(10)   1(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:45 UTC