Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm NORBERT


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 05 2008
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN WAXING AND WANING AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE OVERALL
TREND HAS BEEN FOR IMPROVED ORGANIZATION. DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T3.0/45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.
HOWEVER...3-HR AVERAGE ODT/ADT ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN T3.8 TO T3.9. 
ALSO...THERE WAS A 05/2317Z AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 55 KT.
THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/07. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OR LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED
ON A 05/2022Z AMSR OVERPASS...WHICH REVEALED A TIGHT LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE 37 GHZ CHANNEL ALONG 14N LATITUDE. OTHER
THAN THE SLIGHT SOUTHWARD RELOCATION...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR PHILOSOPHY. FOR THE NEXT
96 HOURS...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AND THEN TURN NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. AFTER
THAT...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST AND INTO THE U.S. DESERT SOUTHWEST BY 120
HOURS...WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND ALLOW NORBERT TO TURN
MORE TOWARD THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS ALSO SIMILAR TO BUT FASTER THAN THE
NHC MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN.
 
THE MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING NORBERT FOR MANY
DAYS NOW IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY AND SHIFT AROUND FROM THE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN OVER 28C AND WARMER SSTS DURING THIS TIME...THE MID-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME LESS MOIST. THE RESULT
IS THAT ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING INTO A CATEGORY 1 OR 2 HURRICANE IS
EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...BUT IS MUCH LOWER
THAN THE HOT-TO-TROT HWRF MODEL...WHICH MAKES NORBERT A 119-KT
CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IN 2-3 DAYS. IN CONTRAST...THE USUALLY ROBUST
GFDL MODEL BARELY BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 70 KT IN 48 HOURS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/0300Z 14.1N 103.7W    55 KT
 12HR VT     06/1200Z 14.3N 104.6W    60 KT
 24HR VT     07/0000Z 14.7N 105.7W    65 KT
 36HR VT     07/1200Z 15.1N 107.0W    70 KT
 48HR VT     08/0000Z 15.7N 108.3W    75 KT
 72HR VT     09/0000Z 17.3N 110.5W    80 KT
 96HR VT     10/0000Z 19.5N 112.5W    75 KT
120HR VT     11/0000Z 23.0N 113.5W    65 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:45 UTC