Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142008
200 AM PDT WED OCT 01 2008
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS DEVELOPED A
WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION AND SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO BE DESIGNATED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE QUIKSCAT
DATA SHOWED RELIABLE-LOOKING WINDS OF 25-30 KT SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER...WITH RAIN-CONTAMINATED WINDS OF UP TO 45 KT SOUTHWEST OF
THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND
30 KT FROM SAB.  BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SET AT 30 KT.  THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING ABOUT
20 KT OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND AS A RESULT THE CENTER
IS NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/8.  THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE SOUTHWEST
SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...WHICH
SHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT
48 HR OR SO.  AFTER THAT...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A LARGE
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...WITH A
BREAK DEVELOPING IN THE RIDGE.  WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON THE
PATTERN...THEY DIVERGE ON THE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE
GFS...HWRF...AND GFDL KEEP ENOUGH RIDGE BETWEEN THE CYCLONE AND THE
TROUGH FOR THE CYCLONE TO MOVE WESTWARD.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
LBAR...NOGAPS...UKMET...AND ECMWF CREATE A BIG ENOUGH BREAK TO TURN
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SLOWLY NORTHWARD.  IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME
WHICH OF THESE TWO OPTIONS IS MOST LIKELY TO HAPPEN.  THUS...THE
FORECAST TRACK AFTER 48 HR CALLS FOR A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION AS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES.

THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE CURRENT SHEAR TO DIMINISH DURING
THE NEXT 48 HR...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING.  THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE OVER DECREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...REACHING THE
26C ISOTHERM BY DAY 5.  NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS
STRENGTHENING BEYOND ABOUT 50 KT...WHICH IS A LITTLE PUZZLING SINCE
THE SHEAR IS LIKELY TO DECREASE WHILE THE CYCLONE IS STILL OVER
WARM WATER.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS
MODEL THROUGH 48 HR...THEN CALLS FOR A WEAKER SYSTEM THAN SHIPS DUE
TO THE COOLING SSTS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/0900Z 16.3N 115.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     01/1800Z 17.0N 116.8W    35 KT
 24HR VT     02/0600Z 17.7N 118.3W    40 KT
 36HR VT     02/1800Z 18.1N 119.7W    45 KT
 48HR VT     03/0600Z 18.1N 121.0W    45 KT
 72HR VT     04/0600Z 18.0N 123.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     05/0600Z 18.0N 124.5W    40 KT
120HR VT     06/0600Z 18.0N 126.5W    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:43 UTC